Analysis · CAC vs LTV · October 2026
Buissonnière · webshop, stores, Meta & Google · Jan 2024 – Aug 2026

Growth is

under-funded.

What a Buissonnière customer is really worth, what it costs to win one, and why the next euro in media should go abroad first.

Bert Onckelinx · izoard.be
Executive summary

Four things the data
says clearly.

01 · Budget

Paid media is 1.2% of revenue

€107k of Meta + Google in 2025 against €9.3M in sales: half the 2.4% an average company spends on paid media.

02 · Value

A new customer is worth €110–€185 in year one

Belgian online customers spend 42% of that in the stores, where webshop ROAS never sees it.

03 · Cost

Abroad, the ads add a customer for €48–€89

After filtering out the extra demand of collection launches. France and the Netherlands are the most efficient.

04 · Verdict

The country push paid off

Better customers than a year earlier. France, the Netherlands and Switzerland pay back their media within six months; Germany within the year.

Recommendation 2027: scenario B, €158k instead of €106k, the extra entirely abroad, scaled up country by country.
Executive summary
How we measured · The sources

Three data sources, one view.

Everything in this deck comes from Buissonnière's own systems and ad accounts. Revenue is net of returns and excluding VAT, unless stated otherwise.

SourceWhat it containsPeriodVolume
Back office
export "Chiffre d'affaires journalier par client et par magasin"
Every sale Buissonnière books: one line per ticket (a till receipt in a store, or an order on the webshop), with amount, point of sale and, where known, the customerFeb 2024 – Aug 2026274,093 tickets
Magento
customer lifetime report
Every customer who ever ordered on the webshop: e-mail, country, date of first order, orders and amount paidMar 2011 – Sep 202665,397 customers
Meta & Google AdsAd spend per campaign and per day, assigned to a country through the campaign nameJan 2024 – Sep 2026€231k spend in total
2024 €53k · 2025 €107k · 2026 €71k
Method · Sources
How we measured · The back office

A ticket is one sale.

One line in the back office = one till receipt in a store or one order on the webshop. A return is a ticket with a negative amount. Illustration below: same structure, values made up.

DateTicket no.Excl. VATIncl. VATPoint of saleCustomer IDE-mail
12/03/202600023-90001xxxxx€61.16€74.00Webshop9xxxxxm•••@gmail.com
28/03/202600011-10004xxxxx€90.08€109.00Store9xxxxxm•••@gmail.com
02/04/202600011-10004xxxxx€-24.79€-30.00Store · return9xxxxxm•••@gmail.com
02/04/202600014-20003xxxxx€45.45€55.00Store—— (anonymous)
74,875
Webshop orders
199,218
Store receipts · 5 stores, a 6th since June 2026
18,518
Of which returns (negative tickets)
76%
Of store revenue carries a customer ID + e-mail
Method · Back-office tickets · Feb 2024 – Aug 2026
How we measured · Online meets offline

The e-mail address is the bridge.

Pay in a store with a customer card, and the till records the customer ID and e-mail. The same e-mail is on the webshop orders and in Magento. That is how one person's online and store purchases come together.

Magento

Who

Country, date of first webshop order. This defines a "new customer" and their cohort.

⇄
E-mail address

The link

Matched as an encrypted code (hash): the analysis never handles names or readable addresses.

⇄
Back office

What they buy

All their tickets afterwards: webshop and stores, returns included.

98%
Of new webshop customers found in the back office on the day of their first order
24%
Of store revenue is anonymous: store figures in this deck are a minimum
Method · Linking webshop and stores
01

The business

today

A strong omnichannel brand with a small media budget that follows the collections.

01 · The business today
01 · Budget

2025: €9.3M in sales,
€107k in paid media.

1.2%
Of total revenue
5.2%
Of webshop revenue
Benchmarks

Average company: marketing = 7.7% of revenue, 30.6% of that is paid media → ≈ 2.4% of revenue. Buissonnière spends half.

Zalando: marketing = 9.3% of revenue.

Gartner CMO Spend Survey 2025 (402 CMOs, mostly large firms) · Zalando Q3 2025 results

Monthly revenue excl. VAT (bars) vs Meta + Google spend (line)
01 · Budget

Half the budget goes to Belgium.
All of it follows the collections.

Belgium took 42% of paid media in 2025 and 49% in 2026. Budgets peak at each collection launch and capsule drop, as they should in a seasonal business. Later in this deck: per extra euro, France and the Netherlands add about twice as many new customers as Belgium.

Monthly Meta + Google spend by target country (€)
02

What a customer

is worth

Lifetime value, measured across webshop and stores, by country and by cohort.

02 · Customer value
02 · The customer base

Half of all customers come back.

Buissonnière is a repeat brand: families buying for every season and every child. That is what makes acquisition worth paying for.

65k
Everyone who ever ordered on the webshop, since it opened in 2011 · 72% since 2020
49%
Ordered more than once
3.2
Webshop orders per customer, on average
€371
Paid on the webshop per customer, all orders since their first one (incl. VAT, webshop only)

These are all-time figures from Magento: older customers have had more years to buy. From the next slide on, we follow only customers acquired since Feb 2024, measured over the same window and including their store purchases.

Magento customer lifetime report · all customers Mar 2011 – 3 Sep 2026
02 · Value over time

Belgian customers keep growing in value.

Cumulative net revenue per new online customer, months after the first order, webshop + stores.

Belgium almost triples its first order within 18 months. Abroad, value comes mostly from a larger first basket; repeat is lower but rising.

New online customers Mar 2024 – Aug 2026 · excl. VAT, net of returns
02 · The store halo

42% of an online customer's value
is spent in the stores.

€185
12-month value of a new Belgian online customer
€77
Of which spent in the stores

Webshop ROAS and Google Analytics see none of this.

Same person = same e-mail on the webshop order and on the store receipt (customer card). Anonymous store purchases are not counted, so the real store share is higher.

Belgium · cumulative value per new online customer, webshop vs stores (€ excl. VAT)
02 · Omnichannel

Store customers who go online
are worth twice as much.

One in six "new" Belgian online customers had already bought in a store before their first webshop order (seen in the back office since Feb 2024). They are already loyal: going online is a step up in their relationship with the brand, not a new customer won by ads.

16.5%
Of new Belgian online customers were store customers first
€156
12-month value · new to the brand
€335
12-month value · store customer going online
Implication: steer Belgian media on total customer value, not on webshop ROAS.
02 · Customer value
02 · By country

Abroad: bigger first baskets.
Belgium: more repeat.

International customers start with a larger first order; France, Germany and Switzerland also return less. Belgian customers come back more often and also buy in the stores.

Longer term confirms it: median value of customers who have been with Buissonnière 2+ years (Dotdigital, spring-summer 2026 review) is €175 in Belgium, €158 France, €238 Netherlands, €290 Germany, €403 Switzerland.

New online customers · 12-month window for cohorts until Aug 2025 · € excl. VAT
02 · Cohort quality

The country push brought
better customers.

Six-month value per new customer: the same season one year apart (September to February), so Christmas, sales and winter collections are in both.

Customers won during the country push are worth more than those won in the same months a year earlier, in every target country. Belgium slightly lower.

Small groups abroad: 46 to 485 customers per bar.

6-month value per new online customer · Sep 2024 – Feb 2025 vs Sep 2025 – Feb 2026 · € excl. VAT
03

What it costs

to win one

Not what the platforms claim, but what the ads actually add.

03 · Acquisition cost
03 · Method

The trap: ads run when demand peaks.

Campaigns start when a collection launches, exactly when customers come anyway. Comparing "weeks with ads" to "weeks without" would credit the ads with the launch. So we separate the two.

Blended CAC · €7.53 – €16

Spend ÷ all new customers

The figure in our seasonal reports (€7.53 in spring 2026; €16.39 for 2025 including agency fees). Useful for tracking, but it credits the ads with everyone who would have come anyway.

Incremental CAC

Spend ÷ customers the ads added

Week by week and country by country, we control for launch demand: store revenue and new Belgian customers (who mostly come without ads) measure how strong each week is anyway.

Two cross-checks

Same launch, a placebo

1. The same collection launch with and without ads (next slide). 2. Spend in other countries does not predict a country's new customers: the effect is not just timing.

Weekly models Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 · country-specific launch controls · 95% confidence intervals
03 · Same launch, with and without ads

Same collection launch. Same store demand.
Only the ads differ.

The autumn collection launch, 15 Aug – 3 Sep. In 2025 there were no ads anywhere; in 2026 there were, except in Switzerland.

Store revenue was the same both years (€798k vs €794k): the launch pulled equally hard. Yet France went from 22 to 124 new customers, the Netherlands from 5 to 61. Switzerland, without ads in both years: 0 to 3.

One launch, so a snapshot. The figures on the next slide use all campaign weeks of the past year.

New online customers, 15 Aug – 3 Sep · 2025 (no ads) vs 2026 (ads)
03 · Incremental CAC

An extra customer abroad costs
€48 to €89.

Included

Meta + Google spend on all campaigns aimed at that country (acquisition and retargeting).

New customer = first webshop order from that country, in the same week as the spend.

Not included

Izoard fees, photo and video production, tools, discounts and free shipping, Global-e and logistics costs. Customers who buy weeks after seeing an ad are not credited, so the true CAC is probably lower.

Incremental CAC = media spend ÷ extra new customers · bar = 95% confidence range
03 · Belgium is different

In Belgium, the brand
does most of the work.

Every extra €1,000 of Belgian ad spend in a week brings about 11 extra new webshop customers that week, on top of those who come anyway. €1,000 ÷ 11 = roughly €94 per extra customer.

The range is wide (€58 – €263): Belgian demand moves with launches, sales and stores, which makes the ads' share hard to isolate.

Most Belgian customers come through the stores, word of mouth and brand search. Spring 2026 had 40% less spend than spring 2025, and still more new customers.

Belgian media earns its keep differently: retention, launches and store traffic.

Belgium · monthly spend (bars) and new online customers (line)
04

The

verdict

Value against cost, country by country, and when to spend.

04 · Verdict
04 · Unit economics

France, NL and Switzerland pay back
within six months.

Gross profit in the first six months per new customer, divided by the incremental CAC. Above 1 = the customer has paid back the media.

Margin to confirm with Buissonnière. Published accounts show €2.88M "gross margin" (Belgian code 9900): revenue minus goods and all services such as rent and logistics, ≈ 31% of revenue. Product margin is higher; we use 50% as a cautious default.

6-month value of Sep 2025 – Feb 2026 cohorts ÷ incremental CAC
04 · The country decision

Investing abroad was
the right call.

At 50% gross margin, six-month value only. Germany and Switzerland: small samples, wide ranges. Belgium pays back over 18 months (€233), largely via the stores.

04 · Verdict
04 · When to spend

Spend when there is a collection to sell.

Buissonnière is a seasonal business: between launches there is mainly outlet stock of the previous collection. Ads amplify the demand a new collection creates, so that is where the extra budget belongs.

CountryAt the autumn launch 2026Average over all campaign weeksReading
France€21€48Biggest upside: more budget at every launch and capsule
Netherlands€33€58Same: grow the launch budgets
Germany€37€89Main launches only
Belgium€28≈ €94Launches and retention; the brand does the rest

Cost per extra new customer. Launch column: 15 Aug – 3 Sep 2026 vs the same weeks of 2025 without ads (one launch, so indicative). The average column covers all weeks with campaigns, launch-controlled.

04 · Verdict
05

2027:

the plan

Three budget scenarios, a recommendation, and a step-by-step scale-up that proves itself as it goes.

05 · 2027
05 · Three budgets for 2027

Three scenarios: what each budget buys.

Budgets concentrated on launches and capsules, like 2026. Average launch-controlled rates per country; above 1.5× a country's 2026 budget −30% efficiency, above 3× −50%. Not counted: extra purchases by existing customers, the stronger launch effect, late buyers. Cautious figures.

Media budgets excl. agency fees · 2026 plan = €106k (BE 55%, FR 20%, NL 12%, DE 8%, CH 5%)
05 · Which scenario

The question is not the budget.
It is the margin.

Each scenario pays for itself within 18 months if Buissonnière's gross margin is above a certain level. The extra euros in scenario B need at least 44%; those in C at least 54%.

40%
A · same as 2026 · break-even gross margin
41%
B · grow abroad · break-even gross margin
44%
C · benchmark spend · break-even gross margin
Our advice: B for 2027, scaled in steps. C only once the margin is confirmed above ~55%.
Break-even = media ÷ 18-month revenue of the extra customers
05 · Recommendations

Five moves for 2027.

#MoveWhy
01Scenario B: grow abroad€158k instead of €106k, the extra entirely abroad. Concentrated on the launches and capsule drops, where an extra customer costs ≈ €21–37.
02France as the growth engineMost efficient (€48 on average across campaign weeks, €21 at the autumn launch) and the biggest market. Step up the budget and re-measure each quarter.
03Belgium: retention and storesBrand-driven acquisition, 42% of value in stores. Measure on total value, not webshop ROAS.
04Steer on LTV, not ROASConfirm the gross margin, then set a maximum CAC per country from 18-month gross profit, reviewed every quarter.
05Fix the measurementSince May 2026, GA4 sees only 6 in 10 orders. Server-side and consent first, or the steering is blind.
05 · 2027
05 · Scale in steps

The bigger budget is the test.

We raise budgets in steps, one country at a time, at the moments a collection launches. Each step shows how many extra customers the next euro buys; the countries not yet stepped up serve as the comparison.

Spring launch 2027

Step 1 · France

France goes to its scenario-B budget first. NL, DE and CH stay at the 2026 level: they are the comparison.

Spring capsules 2027

Step 2 · the Netherlands

If France holds its rate at the launch, the Netherlands steps up at the capsule drops. France and NL are compared with DE and CH.

Autumn launch 2027

Step 3 · all of B

Full scenario B, or C if margin and response allow. Scorecard: back-office new customers per country, not the platforms.

Raising every country at once would mix the effect of the budget with growth and seasonality. Staggering by country keeps a comparison group at every step.

05 · 2027
Notes & caveats

What this analysis does not say.

→ Gross margin is an assumption (50%). With the real figure, the unit economics become exact.

→ Incrementality is observational. Launch demand is controlled for and two cross-checks pass, but it is not a randomised test. Scaling in steps, country by country, in 2027 will confirm it.

→ Belgian seasonality is hard to separate from launches and sales periods; the Belgian estimate is the least precise.

→ Germany and Switzerland rest on smaller samples (84 and 79 customers in the push cohort).

→ Values are early: international cohorts are young, so their long-term value is still building.

→ Data: back office to 31 Aug 2026, customers to 3 Sep 2026, ad spend to 30 Sep 2026.

Bert@izoard.be · +32 484 65 10 14 · izoard.be